Cali State Senate possibilities

Its difficult enough to dig up meaningful, specific, public information on Congressional races that's on line and accessible. For the really dirty underbelly of California Politics, namely our State Legislature, its a topic which seems to interest absolutely nobody in our media. Granted, there are some good columnists commenting on general trends and developments in the state, but with regards to any analysis or information on specific Assembly or Senate races-Good Luck! Still, if one cares to really poke around, add up vote totals, compare these totals to 2008 & 2006, some really encouraging data starts to emerge from the June primaries. Namely, Republicans, have an outside shot of pulling nearly even with Dems in the State Senate come November. Maybe the Assembly too, but that'l have to wait for another post.

For those not immersed in this stuff, just know that the State is currently in the hands of the Dems by 25-13 with 2 vacancies, probably 25-15 after special elections in CA-1 and CA-15 tomorrow. Of the 40 seats, half are voted on every two years. This year it is the turn of the even numbered seats, of which  Democrats currently control 14 of the 20. Of these 6 look to be competitive. CA-12, an open currently Republican district, also may be tight. Primary results can be found here , and vary widely when compared with June 06, but overall reveal a substantial drop at least in Democratic turnout. If I'm feeling up to it I'll post the results comparing June 06 to June 10 primaries.

For now, we'll link to these Republicans for those looking to help or donate. We hope to have a "Hot List" of 10 or so candidates for various offices put up soon!

                                                      June 2010                              June 2006
                                                      GOP/DEM                             GOP/DEM
CA-12 Anthony Cannella     35k/41k                                    36k/38k                      
CA-16 Tim Thiesen                     26k/28k                                    --/31k
CA-28 John Stammreich             34k/51k                                   28k/64k
CA-30 Warren Willis                  18k/24k                                   14k/44k
CA-32 Earl de Vries                     16k/25k                                    --/33k
CA-34 Lucille Kring                     25k/25k                                  25k/29k
CA-40 Brian Hendry                     28k/48k                                   27k/44k
 
So, off the top of my head, I say there's a good of a pick up 2 seats for Thiesen and Kring, a hold for Cannella, with an outside shot for the others.

UPDATE: Cannella (R) wins by about 7% in this swing district on the central coast.  Especially if the next governor is named Jerry Brown (and I'm still undecided on whther to hold my nose and vote for Meg), it will be key to have a solid core of anti-tax Republicans in both the State Senate and Assembly. I'll be adding at least Thiesen and Kring to the Cali Hot List and maybe Willis & de Vries! How solid the above candidates are I can't vouch for just yet, but Cannella seems like a good addition.