Geraghty asks, Smokedaddy answers

For anyone following National Review Online's Campaign Spot, or any other good tracking sights, its becoming apparent that a likely scenario for Democrats this November is not just that they'll lose the House of Representatives to the Republicans, but that they will REALLY lose it. Like, we're talking from 50-100 seats as well as losing the Senate outright. IF this is the case, California's GOP Congressional hopefuls may go from being the relative turd in the punchbowl at the National Teaper coming out Party, to becoming the rich, yummy frosting on the Tea Party birthday cake. This is because when last given a chance to carve, slice, and dice up California's 53 congressional districts, Democrats made Elbridge Gerry one proud papa, making sure that as many districts as possible gerrymandered into comfortable but not too comfortable Democratic majorities. This, and the plain fact is that this state is now decidedly left leaning has led to the donkey's current 33-20 margin in the house, 25-15 margin in the State Senate, and 48-30 edge in the Assembly. Truth be told, Republican Representatives were a little lucky things weren't even worse than they were in 2008, with about four pretty close calls in house elections. So, what does 2010 look like?

Well, the bad news is that thanks to the 2002 gerrymander, there is relatively little low, or even medium  hanging congressional fruit in this state. But, the potentially exciting news is that if the trends continue along the lines they look to be going, there may be as many TEN congressional districts in addition to the now likely wins in CA-11 and CA-47 given the 8.0 earthquake in national politics that now appears likely. Today, in response to his readers acting like a bunch of 10 year olds having not done their homework, Geraghty is demanding some actual data as to why a district would be winnable. Frankly, you'd think some GOP hack would have done this by now so the rest of us don't have to dig and guess for it, but the fact is that finding actual information on a particular district race in a big state like ours, with no shortage of liberal, lazy media types is no easy task. OK, enough, I've dug up the June primary results, eyeballed past voting history in primary and general elections, and now have some actual metrics for Geraghty. Now, keep in mind that using the results of primaries to predict general elections is hardly an exact science. Nonetheless, from eyeballing the results of 2006, 2002, and 1994, it would appear that the Democrat candidate typically receive about 200% of their primary totals in the general elections (though more in Hispanic districts), while Republicans appear to average closer to 250%. Naturally, competitive primaries and the nature of the district affect these numbers, as does the voter's mood in the period between June and November, in our case. With a likely 70/30 breakdown in independents towards Republicans this year and given current trends, I'd say a primary election result of 55/45 Dem vs Rep should be well within striking distance this year given a wave and/or some luck.

So, without further ado, here's the June 2010 breakdown comparing the total votes, by party, for the 12 most competitive incumbent Democrat districts in California.  (H) for heavily hispanic district, CP for competitive primary. Source: California Secretary of State



                                                             D                      R           Other       DTS

Statewide vote                                 44.73%          43.26%       2.59%      8.51%
Party participation                          31.99%          43.73%   
CA-11  McNerny v Harmer (cp)   41.5%            57.4%  
CA-47 (H)  Sanchez v Tran            47..0%           53.0% 
CA-27  Sherman v Reed (cp)         55.0%            45.0%
CA-18  Cardoza v  Berryhill          55.5%            45.5%
CA-23  Capps v Watson (cp)         55.3%            45.2%
CA-20  Costa v Vidak (cp)             55.8%            44.2%
CA-10  Garamendi v Clift (cp)      56.4%            43.1%
CA-29  Schiff  v Colbert                56.6%            43.1%
CA-53  Davis v Crimmins (cp)      57.5%             42.0%
CA-36  Harman (cp) v Fein (cp)    57.8%             41.9%
CA-43  (H) Baca v Folkens            58.3%             41.7%
CA-51  Filner v Popaditch              59.8%             40.2%              

Meg & Carly

Sometime last year it became clear that two accomplished and wealthy former CEOs of two of California's greatest companies were seeking and would likely attain the Republican nominations for Governor and Senator. At the time, at least to me, their actual political views were not too clear, but I suspected at least Carly Fiorina of being a classic corporate RINO. Silicon Valley, big corporate CEO,  etc. Whitman, on the other hand, had built EBAY over 10 years from near nothing, helping millions of Americans to efficiently shop and bid on line, and tens of thousands to build and run their own small businesses. She'd become hugely wealthy in the process, but to me was hardly the corporate stereotype. Not only that she had and has a great smile and seemed like she might adapt well to the world of politics. Carly's tenure at Hewlett-Packard featured merger and boardroom fights, layoffs, and overall mixed results. Though truthfully, she had the much  harder job given the trends in their businesses. When in the news, her demeanor seemed to always be pretty severe. I assumed she'd be the typical corporate, country club Republican, moderate on economics & defense/foreign policy, and liberal on social issues like life, guns, environment, marriage, etc.

A year later and its now clear to me that my initial impressions of both Meg and Carly were almost exactly opposite of the reality. With respect to Carly, this became clear to me one night when watching the primary debates. One of the journo-panelists got on the topic of guns, speechifying on the need for a waiting period and to apply a "no fly list" policy to gun purchasers. RINO candidate Tom Campbell took the bait and lamely agreed with the questioner. Carly, however, not only disagreed, but was knowleadgable and prepared to point out the facts on the issue, showing both the questioner and Campbell to be liberal, out of the mainstream, and uninformed. Right there she won my vote and  support. Now, I know that many, probably most Teapers had their hearts set on  Chuck DeVore, God bless him. But the reality, I think, is that when running to unseat an 18 year incumbent Senator in California, we need someone with a little more status,star power and money than being one of 80 members of the State Assembly. Carly, unlike Meg, is not hugely wealthy, but does have enough to run a good campaign in this State. More importantly, she has shown a willingness to talk to the press, reach out to her natural supporters, and show an engaging human side that contrasts her with her opponent. Also unlike Meg, she hasn't reversed her position on immigration or anything else in a misguided effort to appeal to minorities or members of the ruling class. Of course, she could be the second coming of the Maine RINOs and still be a vast improvement over the current incumbent. Granted, she's no Sharon Angle, but in the realm of California reality, I think she's terrific.

Meg Whitman, on the other hand, has done none of these things. Not only that, a little research indicates we've got a real liberal when it comes to matters like immigration, life, the environment and God knows what else. Granted she's been married and raised children while running a huge growing business but based on the behavior of her college age boys and the lawsuits from employees that may not be too big a positive. Now, I'm still masochistically half-way inclined to vote for her in light of the alternative. Ideally, she would turn out to be a California version of Chris Christie given her apparent lack of need to be liked. No doubt she'd be good at overhauling the State pension system, myriad expensive boards and commissions, and use of technology that often dates from the last time Jerry Brown was in office. Or, she may simply be another Ahnuld but more competent and less likable while but continuing to prevent the emergence of attractive, conservative leaders in the state party. Meanwhile infesting the bureacracy and the courts with fellow RINOs. Like Ahnuld she appears to have no interest in building the capacity of the State Republican party to, you know, actually defeat Democrats in the legislature. So, for now I'm on the fence. If you could somehow guarantee me that Carly would win, and that Meg would lose by a margin of less than 5% due to the Chelene Nightingale hard core Tea Party vote, I might actually see a scenario where the long-term interests of California might actually best be served by a Brown governorship as opposed to Whitman. But I'm still on the fence.

Linktime with Smokedaddy

• This piece by Mark Tapscott on The Wisdom of Crowds is a must read for all Teapers.
• For a little longer read on the true nature and history of today's political divides,  Anthony Codevilla's "America's Ruling Class" is an absolute must!
• For those who are concerned about the Democrat money advantage and what it may mean as we get closer to Nov 2, there's this fairly encouraging piece in the left leaning Politico.
• Washington State, to me is fairly comparable to California politically, especially this year. Large Tech sectors, major agricultural regions, and long-serving incredibly leftwing and dopey Senatoresses facing major challenges. As luck would have it, they just held their unique open primary which was very revealing. I'll be posting more on what our own primaries told us soon.
• For all of you Meg haters out there, feast yourselves
• Finally, imagine yourself stuck on the 10 Freeway in West LA for four hours. A dreadful accident?, a huge rally? Badly needed repairs? No, nothing so trivial.

Hey Candidates!

Looking at some of your "websites" reminds me of watching Rod Blagojevich on The Apprentice lamely trying to use a keyboard. And we're not talking about districts where there's not a snowball's chance you'll get elected. I look at Kring, Willis and Hendry (see below), and all I can say is that a static JPG file or a facebook page do NOT cut it. Best site, and most promising candidate too from TP perspective, belonged to De Vries running for State Senate from Upland or thereabouts (now on Cali Hot List on left). Also, here's a somewhat dated and way too pessimistic synopsis from RINO old boy political consultant Allan Hoffenblum commenting on particular legislative races .

Cali State Senate possibilities

Its difficult enough to dig up meaningful, specific, public information on Congressional races that's on line and accessible. For the really dirty underbelly of California Politics, namely our State Legislature, its a topic which seems to interest absolutely nobody in our media. Granted, there are some good columnists commenting on general trends and developments in the state, but with regards to any analysis or information on specific Assembly or Senate races-Good Luck! Still, if one cares to really poke around, add up vote totals, compare these totals to 2008 & 2006, some really encouraging data starts to emerge from the June primaries. Namely, Republicans, have an outside shot of pulling nearly even with Dems in the State Senate come November. Maybe the Assembly too, but that'l have to wait for another post.

For those not immersed in this stuff, just know that the State is currently in the hands of the Dems by 25-13 with 2 vacancies, probably 25-15 after special elections in CA-1 and CA-15 tomorrow. Of the 40 seats, half are voted on every two years. This year it is the turn of the even numbered seats, of which  Democrats currently control 14 of the 20. Of these 6 look to be competitive. CA-12, an open currently Republican district, also may be tight. Primary results can be found here , and vary widely when compared with June 06, but overall reveal a substantial drop at least in Democratic turnout. If I'm feeling up to it I'll post the results comparing June 06 to June 10 primaries.

For now, we'll link to these Republicans for those looking to help or donate. We hope to have a "Hot List" of 10 or so candidates for various offices put up soon!

                                                      June 2010                              June 2006
                                                      GOP/DEM                             GOP/DEM
CA-12 Anthony Cannella     35k/41k                                    36k/38k                      
CA-16 Tim Thiesen                     26k/28k                                    --/31k
CA-28 John Stammreich             34k/51k                                   28k/64k
CA-30 Warren Willis                  18k/24k                                   14k/44k
CA-32 Earl de Vries                     16k/25k                                    --/33k
CA-34 Lucille Kring                     25k/25k                                  25k/29k
CA-40 Brian Hendry                     28k/48k                                   27k/44k
 
So, off the top of my head, I say there's a good of a pick up 2 seats for Thiesen and Kring, a hold for Cannella, with an outside shot for the others.

UPDATE: Cannella (R) wins by about 7% in this swing district on the central coast.  Especially if the next governor is named Jerry Brown (and I'm still undecided on whther to hold my nose and vote for Meg), it will be key to have a solid core of anti-tax Republicans in both the State Senate and Assembly. I'll be adding at least Thiesen and Kring to the Cali Hot List and maybe Willis & de Vries! How solid the above candidates are I can't vouch for just yet, but Cannella seems like a good addition.

Desert Dilemna ?

Ever since husband Sonny's tragic death in a skiing accident (god has it been 12 years!), I've had kind of a soft spot in my heart for Mary Bono, now Mary Bono-Mack, now with some twelve years under her belt as California's CA-45 elected representative to congress. She gamely stepped up to the plate in a difficult situation, dealing about as well as one could expect with national publicity and a certain ex-wife. Now, I do recall a 4 year marriage to some businessguy following the death of Sonny, the rumors of an affair with a certain House Speaker, but on that front, I say let Mary enjoy her new found marital bliss. OK, enough gossip.

Mary, in my mind at least, is symptomatic of the type of Republican which has led the Tea Party to spread like a prairie fire across this great land. Good at public appearances, schmoozing local and national power brokers, attractive, good with people (men at least), Mary is the type of gal we could use more of as a neighbor, a friend, or colleague. But with respect to her representing CA-45 in Congress given the current alternative, there's a dilemna facing district voters for which I have no easy answer. Mary was one of 8 deciding Republicans to vote with Nancy and Barack on Cap & Trade! My blood boils. So, the primary is over, Mary in truth is not as bad as some would have you believe on most relevant issues, she's got some political skills and she is certainly a whole lot better than the alternative. Given the nature of the district, the possibility of Mr. Pougnet esconced in power from Palm Springs for the next 20 or so years, and my own soft spot for the incumbent, My vote is for... Mary.

Frankly, I can't imagine Pougnet having a snowball's chance on an Indio parking lot at August midday, in this election year. Still, CA-45 is rated R+3 by Cook, 201st most Republican, and voted for Obama by 4 pts. and the mayor of Palm Springs is a strong candidate.

Thoughts on November

In the upcoming weeks, I plan on doing some serious spade work in terms of determining just exactly who we CCCers (California Constitutional Conservites) have to work with with regards to Republican candidates for the Statewide positions other than Governor and Senator, as well as any promising candidacies deserving of support in the state Assembly and Senate. One of the prime reasons for this blog is frankly, the pathetic amount and access to information on the web concerning these 2nd tier races. But this is where long term change for the better needs to occur. Democrats have been placing Ruling Class moles in office since time immemorial. Its about time we do the same! (The mole part I mean)

Nonetheless, lets not kid ourselves. At the top of the list of important votes this November are the races for Governor and for Senator. I'd add a third one of almost equal importance- namely Proposition 20, on which I'll expound in a separate post. In addition, I'll be posting links to support candidates for Congress, State Senate, and State Assembly.  The stew of ingredients used to determine a candidate's posting to our Hugh Hewitt inspired hot list will include a candidate's:

A) Commitment to Tea Party principles
B) Qualifications and Personal Character broadly defined.  and
C) Likelihood of success given some extra resources and support from our readers.

Incumbent, porkbarelling, logrolling, system playing hacks who happen to have an (R) after their name need not apply. Otherwise, I hope to interview candidates and their staff, and clarify for this site's readers who exactly is who with respect to the above. For now, I'll link the five most competitive of this state's Congressional districts from Real Clear Politics CA-3  CA-18, CA-20, CA-45 (my own) and CA-47.  I'll include CA-11 from CQ while we're at it. Am I misssing any? Best case scenario- a GOP pickup of 4 seats.

TP vs GOP?

Not in my mind. Au contraire, as with the progressives of a hundred years ago, success will come by co-opting, not replacing, the structures of at least one of our major political parties. Love it or hate it, the deck is stacked in this country in favor of 2 parties. And unless you are just absolutely high on crack, can there be any doubt of the target party for Tea Partyers? Still, the question arises- What does one do when there's a less than ideal Republican, somewhat doubtfully committed to Tea Party principles, who is nonetheless clearly less bad than her opponent? Well, life is full of choices. My choice in this case-punch the ticket for the possibility that Meg can be the California version of this guy. Doesn't change the fact thought that my favorite girl Republican Silicon Valley CEO this year is named Carly.

Now, this begs the question of how to approach a decision in a primary. But... seeing how we're now in August and not June, we'll have to leave that one to the residents of Delaware. I think I'm in love.

Why this Blog?

1) I, Smokedaddy, personally need to do this. For my own sanity, my family's sanity, a need to fulfill that all important sense of purpose we all have in life (ego gratification in other words), and maybe, just maybe, the possibility of generating a buck or two in the process.

2) The crying need, consistent with the stated goals of the national Tea Party movement, to identify, promote, and weed out our current and future crop of aspiring Tea Party politicos in light of the Tea Party's emergence as a potent political force.

3) In my view, the Tea Party Movement is a unique opportunity for like minded citizens to fundamentally change the dynamics of the body politic in which we live. But for that to happen, there need to be reliable sources of coordination and information on

• Legislation and ballot initiatives that can affect Tea Party political prospects in our great state. Like this.
• Who exactly is who when it comes to political candidates qualifications and actual beliefs with respect to Tea Party ideals.
• Realistic prospects of success given a candidates background and district.
• Where to go to contribute to and support the causes and candidates that may somehow overthrow and/or minimize the power of our existing ruling class in this state

Now, there are a number of things a blog like can and cannot aspire to do. Among those we will NOT attempt to be doing-

• Identify promising candidates across the nation. California, at least for now, will more than suffice. We live in a target rich environment!
• Apart from my occasional (OK more than occasional) snarky asides on issues of substance, God forbid we become a localized Tea Party version of dailyKos, but I'm hoping to limit tangenital debates over the goal here will be to focus on current and aspiring political candidates that meet Tea Party litmus tests.
• Pretend to be the adjunct to a political party. Speaking as a lifelong Republican voter and former president of the Claremont College Republicans, I still refuse to confuse the means with the ends.